Thursday May 26, 2022

These 10 dividend stocks with yields of at least 5% can help you take on stagflation or a recession


Word of progress in ceasefire talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Turkey on March 29 led to a positive reaction among investors. But even an immediate end to the hostilities wouldn’t change the fact that the US is in a cycle of rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve fights high inflation.

In a report on March 29, analysts at Jefferies wrote that receiving dividends “should become an entrenched theme” in the stock market. Growth-oriented strategies, they noted, are likely to suffer under the Fed’s tightening cycle.

Below is a screen of value stocks with high dividend yields that are well-supported by expected cash flow.

The bond market’s recession signal

Investors and analysts are growing more concerned that the inverted yield curve for US Treasury securities is pointing to a recession and possibly even stagflation — a combination of high inflation and shrinking demand. Focusing on value stocks with high dividend yields might help you make the most of what could be a difficult environment over the next two years.

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First, take a look at Treasury yields at the end of business on March 28 for various maturities:

You can click on the maturities in the left column to go directly to that Treasury security’s quote page.

Yields on three-year BX:TMUBMUSD03Y
and five-year BX:TMUBMUSD05Y
Treasury notes were higher than the yields on 10-year notes BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
and 30-year bonds BX:TMUBMUSD30Y.
This type of inverted yield curve has pointed to previous recessions. However in a report on March 29, analysts at BCA Research led by Ryan Swift expressed nuanced opinions based on the movement of interest rates before previous recessions:

  • An inverted Treasury yield curve is a “reliable” recession indicator, especially when (or if) the two-year yield exceeds the 10-year yield. But inversion of three-month to 10-year yields would provide a “more timely” recession signal.

  • In light of the above, “it is premature to talk about a recession.”

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The spread between three-month and two-year yields has actually widened over the past month, which bodes well for banks’ profits, at least until the next recession.

So the timing of the next recession is in question. Getting back to the value/dividends theme from the Jefferies analysts, this is a good time to screen for both.

A value/dividends stock screen

The Russell 1000 index RUI
is made up of the largest 1,000 US stocks by market capitalization, which represent about 90% of the US equity market. One subset is the Russell 1000 Value Index RLV,
which comprises about 850 stocks of companies in the Russell 1000 that have lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth rates. You can read FTSE Russell’s descriptions of the makeup and scoring for its indexes here.

Within the Russell 1000 Value Index, there are 25 companies whose stocks have dividend yields of at least 5.00% and for which free cash flow estimates or similar data are available.

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A company’s free cash flow is its remaining cash flow after capital expenditures. It is money that can be used to pay dividends or to expand, make acquisitions, repurchase shares or for other corporate purposes. If we divide a company’s expected annual free cash flow per share by the current share price, we have an estimated free cash flow yield, which can be compared to the current yield to see if there is a “headroom” for higher dividends.

Headroom indicates there is at least good support for the current dividend payout. Dividend cuts are best avoided, as they can cause share prices to decline.

For some companies, free-cash-flow estimates aren’t available. Those, we can use consensus estimates for funds from operations (FFO) for real estate investment trusts. FFO is a non-GAAP measure that is considered in the REIT industry to be a good gauge for dividend-paying ability. It adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings, while excluding gains on the sale of property. So for REITs the headroom estimates are based on FFO.

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For most companies in the financial sector, free cash flow figures aren’t available. For these, we have used consensus earnings-per-share estimates for headroom estimates, as EPS is used by regulators to set caps on dividend payments for the largest banks.

In addition to screening for dividend-paying headroom, we also excluded from the list any company that cut its regular dividend over the past five years.

Here are the highest-yielding stocks that passed the screen, sorted by dividend yield:

Company

Ticker

Industry

Dividend yield

Estimated 2022 FCF yield

Estimated 2022 “headroom”

UWM Holdings Corp. Class A

UWMC

Finance/Rental/Leasing

9.01%

10.18%

1.18%

Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.

OHI

Real Estate Investment Trusts

8.71%

9.16%

0.45%

OneMain Holdings Inc.

OMF

Finance/Rental/Leasing

8.13%

18.55%

10.42%

Devon Energy Corp.

DVN

Oil & Gas Production

6.62%

11.79%

5.18%

New York Community Bancorp Inc.

NYCB

Savings Banks

6.22%

12.53%

6.30%

Kinder Morgan Inc Class P

KMI

Oil & Gas Pipelines

5.76%

9.11%

3.35%

Medical Properties Trust Inc.

MPW

Real-estate investment trusts

5.54%

8.90%

3.36%

Lazard Ltd Class A

LAZ

Investment Banks/Brokers

5.30%

12.72%

7.42%

ONEOK Inc.

OKE

Oil & Gas Pipelines

5.26%

7.18%

1.91%

Store Capital Corp.

STOR

Real-estate investment trusts

5.21%

7.36%

2.15%

Source: FactSet

Click on the tickers for more about each company.

Then read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

Don’t miss: Tesla is one of only 11 stocks in the S&P 500, excluding energy, that enjoys this critical support



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